1. Current situation: small paper mills have orders to make orders, but no orders stop production, and the problem of raw materials for large mills is thorny
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Paper mills do not ship much finished paper, but waste paper inventory is not large (or even low), and the overall supply and sales are still balanced. Therefore, the purchase price of waste paper from paper mills should choose to follow the paper mills and regions that are the first to adjust prices, and follow the market ( For example, in this round of fluctuations, Zhejiang Forest Paper will guide surrounding companies and changes in cities). It is worth noting that the paper mills that guide market prices at this stage are not necessarily the leading companies!
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During the price increase stage of waste paper, the paper mills that increase the price first can truly absorb and store relatively low-priced waste paper, and then they can only drink a small amount of soup (Once the price increase is expected to be formed, the packing station will choose to sell it in anticipation of high prices), so It is not ruled out that subsequent paper mill band operations will become more frequent.
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Small paper mills have orders to make orders, no orders stop production, loose orders can be received, and flexibility: At this stage, small paper mills have low finished product inventory and raw material inventory. The lack of raw materials is due to insufficient supply in the waste paper market and fewer finished products. Flexibility to reduce production and limit production, reduce inventory pressure and return cash flow in time. In fact, the life of a small factory is pretty good (the price of waste paper is reduced more than that of finished paper, and the profit rate of ton of paper does not fall but rises). It is far less than the pessimism spread in the market. A certain paper factory rumored in the market The employees' salaries are also mainly due to individual cases of problems in the capital chain.
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　　 Large paper mills pay attention to the end market, advance the layout of raw materials and finished products, and inventory (waste paper and finished paper) is a big hidden danger. As we all know, large paper mills are unwilling to easily use the killing trick of stopping production to reduce production (especially after the Spring Festival overhaul), and because the price advantage of finished paper of large paper mills is not obvious, and the terminal market has indeed entered the freezing point, large It is inevitable that the finished paper inventory of paper mills will maintain a median and slowly rise! In addition, it is also a fact that raw materials are tightened due to insufficient operation of the terminal market and secondary factories during the epidemic, so the lack of raw materials for large paper mills will also become a thorny issue.
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　　2. Domestic demand: domestic packaging paper-related industries are accelerating recovery
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Food, soft drinks, and daily chemicals account for 60% of the demand for packaging cartons. This part is rigid demand and is only affected by the supply side. As the resumption of production and work further accelerates, the demand for this part of packaging paper will steadily increase; according to market research in electronic communications The company’s ABI Research report shows that global smartphone production in the first half of this year will fall by 30% due to "stable supply" and "paralyzed demand." However, as the domestic "new infrastructure" vigorously advances, terminal demand will usher in explosive growth in the future.
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The express delivery industry has become the absolute main force in the flow of materials during the epidemic. As the domestic epidemic fades, the rapid growth trend of the express delivery industry will be eased; on March 18, the Ministry of Commerce stated that the consumption of home appliances has fallen by 30%, and it is necessary to expand the consumption of key commodities. The department further researched and proposed policies and measures to promote the consumption of key commodities such as home appliances, and encouraged enterprises to trade in electronic products. Short-term demand will see a callback. However, due to real estate regulation, terminal demand cannot show retaliatory growth. In summary, domestic packaging paper The demand of related industries is recovering rapidly, and the overall demand will continue to improve for some time to come.
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　　3. Foreign trade: exports have dropped by at least 20%
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　　 The data for March 2020 shows that the domestic demand indicators of the manufacturing industry have rebounded, but imports and on-hand orders are still in the month-on-month contraction range, and the external demand indicators are still in the month-on-month contraction range. The new export order index rose to 46.4% from 28.7% in February in March, which is still below the 50% "prosperity and decline line". With the rapid spread and escalation of overseas epidemics, the pressure of external demand is still gradually emerging.
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　　 This year's overall exports will inevitably drop significantly, and as the global epidemic further intensifies, it will continue to decline. If it is just a simple linear calculation, our exports will have to drop by at least 20%.
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　　 But fortunately, our export structure has been optimized. Our larger foreign trade is in Asia, and both imports and exports to Asia account for about 50%. Our exports to the United States and the European Union accounted for approximately 34%, and imports accounted for approximately 20%.
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　　If we consider this structural change, our export losses may be smaller.
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In March, foreign trade indicators were still shrinking month-on-month, and as the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States and other countries became more serious, export trade restrictions may further increase. The demand for packaging paper was one month ahead of the market. Therefore, the demand for finished paper due to the ease of foreign trade demand is large. Probability will only appear from the end of April to May.
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　　4. Paper prices may still fluctuate significantly, and the terminal market may have variables
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　　Considering the overall domestic demand and foreign trade factors, we follow the inventory index:
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　　From the perspective of overall demand, the inventory index rebounded in March. In March, the raw material inventory index rose to 49.0% from 33.9% in the previous month, and the finished product inventory index rose to 49.1% from 46.1% in the previous month.
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　　 The inventory of finished products and raw materials have risen, which proves that the total demand is rising at this stage. While maintaining the current operating rate, the prices of packaging paper and waste paper will show a slow upward trend.
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But the market is never static. Once the demand and price of finished paper and waste paper pick up, the operating rate and operation rate of paper mills will increase significantly. Therefore, it can only be said that the short-term trend is positive, and there will still be a larger price band in the future. Adjustment.
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　　 At present, the importance of domestic consumption in boosting the economy is increasing year by year. Consumption accounted for 57.8% of my country's GDP growth in 2019. In terms of investment, after the end of the rapid growth phase, my country lacks sufficient "magnitude" infrastructure investment projects. Therefore, the current consumption has a greater effect on stabilizing my country's economic growth and even the economic rebound after the epidemic.
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The epidemic itself has brought a great direct impact on consumption, and at the same time, it has caused a great indirect impact on consumption through small, medium and micro enterprises. Enterprises are facing difficulties, which are transmitted to the decline in income of the majority of residents, and consequently the willingness and ability to consume will be reduced. .
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　　Therefore, there are still many variables in the consumption power changes of the actual terminal market.
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From the perspective of the terminal market in the next stage (after all, only when the terminal market is fully opened can the finished paper and waste paper market have a substantial linkage to pull up), the most important thing to focus on is the opening of schools and the rebound of the tertiary industry market. (Note that it is expected rather than actual data, the actual data is significantly behind the packaging paper, finished paper and waste paper industry).